Fiscal Policy and Global Climate Change
Certainly everyone has heard the rhetoric that we must address the issue of Social Security “reform” as soon as possible because for every year that passes, the system’s income shinks and its outlays grow, requiring that any solution in the future be more drastic than one today. While I challenge most of the assertions made by the Bush administration on Social Security, I rather welcome this way of speaking about it. This line of thinking is relatively sophisticated: it perceives that by changing our behavior now, rather than when the change is forced upon us, we can address the problem while it is cheaper (and still within our means) to do so.
Such perception could be better targeted, however. In particular, I’m interested in the administration’s approach to the problem of global warming, which happens to be identical in nature, at least according to the scientists who study the phenomenon:
“Implications include: (i) expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6°C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) confirmation of the climate system’s lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change…” (Hansen, et. al., “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications,” 2005)
In short, our actions in the past hundred years have already locked us into a certain level of warming, even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today. Thus, while we wait to address the problem (and greenhouse gas concentrations not only rise, but rise continually faster as emissions increase), we’re guaranteeing that we’ll be less prepared to deal with the problems of the future.
It’s no suprise that the Bush administration refuses to acknowledge that global climate change is a problem that will require more drastic action to address in the future than it would to tackle it today. Such an admission would almost certainly lead to action, which would be wildly unpopular among much of the Republican party’s base. Instead, it is politically wiser for the President to do as he is doing: claim that the threat is not imminent and that more research is needed. Of course, Bush has plenty of experience ignoring issues that will become a great burden over time– just look at our deficit.