Current Hurricane Forecast
Wilma: Highly uncertain, models generally forecasting significant weakening of the storm and a movement towards Southern Florida over the next three days. Might end up not being a big deal for Florida.
The tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles: Could become a tropical cyclone, but again, highly uncertain.
24-Hour News Networks: We have a high confidence level in our forecast of breathless news coverage. It will likely involve a “Situation Room” and possibly reporters standing in a stiff breeze, trying to convince viewers that the apocalypse is nigh. They’re so invested in the story at this point, they won’t be able to let go, even if Wilma shows up in Florida only to lovingly accept Fred’s foibles, even after his outrageous but family-friendly adventure with Barney.
For the nerds: output from several computer models used to predict tropical cyclone track and intensity. These aren’t forecasts– they’re some of the information used by forecasters in their analyses.